What is Fluvius?

Fluvius is a dynamic, momentum driven asset allocation strategy that includes bitcoin and traditional assets to offer explosive growth potential and true diversification, with disciplined downside protection.

Fluvius is a beautiful combination of the best aspects of passive investing and active trading. Passive investors view investing simply from a broad asset allocation perspective, but that allocation is static - unable to adapt. While active trading is attempting to identify companies that will out perform over a given time frame. By blending the two we have an active asset allocation approach that seeks to identify pockets of each asset class that are outperforming their peers. As a result, we get the diversification of passive investing with outperformance of a proven active, momentum based allocation method. And the cherry on top? We’ve built in a cash trigger to offer downside protection that is unbiased and unemotional. This could work with traditional assets only, but adding bitcoin supercharges everything - boosting performance and lowering the overall risk of the portfolio.

Here is the complete Fluvius presentation on our Youtube (see FAQs below the video):
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What does “dynamic” or “momentum driven” mean?

It’s dynamic meaning it adapts to what's happening real time in the markets. Does that mean we are trading daily? No, that’s silly in my opinion. We are running our analysis monthly and making trading decisions based on what our formula produces. The advantage to our clients is that they are not at the whim of the markets, forced to sit with their fingers crossed hoping a passive strategy actually works into the future based on old data. As markets fundamentally shift, this strategy (your money) will shift with them.

What does it mean that it's a trend and momentum based strategy? That means we are searching for which assets within each asset class have the most momentum behind their positive, long term trend. For example, in our equity sector sleeve, we take a pre-selected group of US sector ETFs, like financials, communications, technology, etc. and rank them from highest to lowest based on their recent performance. The ETF which has performed best, most recently, is the one we will allocate to in that given month.

What asset classes does Fluvius include?

By default, we have 2 Fluvius strategies, a 3 sleeve and a 4 sleeve strategy. Within the 3 sleeve, we are including 3 asset classes - bitcoin, equities, and commodities. Within the 4 sleeve, we are including 4 asset classes - bitcoin, equities, commodities, and bonds.

Within the various sleeves we can gain exposure to the portion of that asset class that is demonstrating a strong, positive trend with momentum behind that trend. For example, commodities could include gold and silver in one month. Equities could include small cap value stocks and financial stocks in one month. But the following month, each of those sleeves could adjust if other segments of that asset class are showing stronger momentum.

What type of investments are used in Fluvius?

We solely utilize ETFs within the Fluvius strategy. We are not actively trying to pick stocks or time the market with a crystal ball. We are taking the best aspects from diversified ETF investing and blending it with a more intelligent, dynamic, asset allocation approach. This lowers risk across the portfolio, because we are not relying on specific companies to drive performance within the equity sleeve, as an example.

It is also important to note that we are utilizing Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) to gain exposure to bitcoin for our Fluvius strategy. We are not using spot bitcoin. There are downsides to this, but as of now, that’s all we have access to through our custodian. In the future, if we can find a custodian that will allow us to use spot bitcoin over the ETF, we would prefer to do so. That would eliminate the annual expense ratio associated with the ETF and offer clients the ability to directly withdraw to cold storage without being forced to sell, therefore unnecessarily realizing a capital gain.

Are you trying to time the market?

No, we do not have a crystal ball and we are not God. No one can consistently, accurately predict market movements in the short term, so we are not going to try. By definition, this strategy is designed to capture the majority of the upside in an asset and forgo the majority of the downside. Notice I did not say capture “all of the upside” and forgo “all of the downside”.

Here is a great visual to demonstrate this. This is bitcoin’s price chart overlaid with a simple moving average that we use to determine whether to hold bitcoin or cash within the bitcoin sleeve.
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As you can see, we absolutely will not time the perfect market bottoms or market tops as illustrated with crossed out “buy” and “sell” words in red. But if we buy and sell where those words are green, we are effectively capturing the majority of the upside during bull markets and forgoing a majority of the downside during bear markets.

Note, this does not eliminate volatility along the way. While holding bitcoin, we are still exposed to its volatility and it’s not until it crosses below our pre-selected simple moving average that we are selling in favor of bonds or cash instead.

Can you adjust the default equal weight allocations to each asset class?

Yes, we can adjust the asset class starting allocations and rebalance targets. For example, we could do a 4 sleeve strategy of 40% equities, 30% bitcoin, 20% commodities, and 10% bonds. Instead of our default equal weight allocations of 25% each for the 4 sleeve strategy specifically. However, there is not always a good reason for making such changes, so it’s best to discuss your situation and goals with us prior to making up your mind on the allocations you would prefer to see.

How does Fluvius protect me against market crashes?

Built in to Fluvius is a “go to cash” trigger. In reality this trigger could mean we sell bitcoin, equities, or commodities in favor of bonds or cash depending on how the bond market is reacting to the market crash. We have a different out of market (“go to cash”) trigger for each asset class, so the decision to sell for cash is independent within each sleeve. For example, the bitcoin sleeve could go to cash, while the other sleeves still participate in the market or vice versa. This protects you in two primary ways. First, it protects against experiencing the entirety of a severe market crash. However, if the crash is not severe enough or does not last long, our triggers may never be set off. Second, it protects you from your own emotions around the crash or the decision on when to reenter the market. How does it do that? Because the decision on when to sell and buy back in is entirely based on market data, there is no emotion or human discretion involved.

Do the sleeves “interact” with each other?

No, the decisions around what asset to hold in each respective sleeve are made independently of what is happening in the other sleeves. Also, the decisions on when to go to cash (or bonds) are made independently in each sleeve regardless of what may be happening in the other sleeves. It’s also important to note that each sleeve has its own unique logic to decide what happens within the sleeve. This allowed us to craft the criteria for each asset class based on its own, unique characteristics and historical performance.

What are the biggest risks to this strategy?

First, it depends on what you see as risk. We’ll refer to risk as the underperformance compared to a standard stock/bond portfolio.

What would need to be true for that to happen? There are two primary risks with this strategy - Bitcoin does not perform or we see a prolonged, choppy sideways market. With Bitcoin being a large allocation within our default models and still viewed as a relatively fringe asset, it could act as an anchor to the portfolio if it drops significantly without a strong recovery or remains flat indefinitely. This strategy can also underperform in prolonged sideways choppy markets, because it can produce false trade signals leading to underperformance. Remember, we need to find and capture momentum on strong positive trends and if there is no momentum or clear trend, then this strategy could struggle. Now, do we expect either of these things to happen for long periods of time (5+ years)? No. But it's worth understanding this going into it.

Do you have a minimum investment requirement?

No, we do not have a minimum investment requirement.

What are the tax implications of this strategy?

As it currently stands, Fluvius can trade as often as monthly. However, it can also hold the same asset for 1 year or longer. So, there is complexity to capturing the exact tax impacts on Fluvius’ performance. In our due diligence, we were able to establish a best estimate of a 2-3% tax drag on the compound annual growth rate over the backtested timeframe of January 2014 - January 2025 for both Fluvius strategies. Bottom line, yes, the active nature of Fluvius can generate tax liabilities, but we expect the performance net of taxes to still be worthwhile. Can we guarantee that? Of course not, the future could easily look different from the past.

Who is Fluvius a good fit for?

Fluvius can be a great fit for people in multiple situations.

First, the heavily allocated bitcoiner who is nearing or in retirement. We find that Fluvius can act as a volatility buffer for the short or medium term assets that we expect to live off of within the next 5-10 years. It protects them against sequence of returns risk, helps them sleep better at night (and their spouse), and still allows for sufficient upside potential in the medium to long term.

Second, the couple approaching retirement or in retirement currently who would like bitcoin to be a part of their retirement strategy. Does that mean bitcoin must be the focal point? No. But with the customization capability, true diversification, and downside protection mechanisms of Fluvius, bitcoin’s volatility is much easier to stomach for those who have little experience with it or may be hesitant to increase their existing allocation.

Third, the investor (at any age) who currently owns bitcoin and invests in index funds or other traditional assets (especially within retirement accounts). We see Fluvius as a more intelligent alternative to investing in index funds, especially when doing so within retirement accounts where holding spot bitcoin or a bitcoin ETF makes little difference.

It’s important we get to know you, your goals, and financial circumstances before truly recommending Fluvius. This is not financial advice. Schedule a discovery call if you’re interested in receiving our personalized guidance.

Can I exclude certain asset classes altogether?

No. We spent hundreds of hours crafting these strategies based on historical evidence and our unique knowledge of the financial system. We offer a 3 sleeve and 4 sleeve strategy to exclude bonds where appropriate, but excluding additional asset classes compromises the diversified nature of the strategy. We have not found a good reason to do so.

Why did you create Fluvius?

Jacob suspected there was opportunity to produce better outcomes for clients with a managed bitcoin allocation. After exploring how we might implement that, he was reminded of his career of first-hand experience demonstrating the efficacy of momentum & trend investing. He took that knowledge and decided to craft a strategy that he felt was true to the principles of diversification, while also utilizing 100+ years of academic research that shows how powerful an active portfolio management tool like this can be. Hundreds of hours of due diligence later, we have Fluvius.

Do you view Bitcoin as savings or an investment?

Bitcoin can be both depending on the circumstances. We do not actively push folks to sell cold storage bitcoin in favor of our strategy. You can have long term savings via cold storage bitcoin and have an allocation for “investment” bitcoin that can use bitcoin as a performance asset in a portfolio. You do not have to take an all or nothing approach to how you use bitcoin for your financial situation. You can choose to go fully toward one direction or the other, but we have found benefit in having flexibility dependent on the person, their goals, or their circumstances.

What are your fees for investment management?

All Fluvius backtest and actual results are shared net of a 1% annual assets under management fee. Meaning we are sharing the results as if you had a 1% AUM fee included during the backtest. That is the starting point for our fee, however it could be less or more depending on the services we are providing and the amount of assets we are managing.

How often does Fluvius rebalance?

We rebalance Fluvius back to the equal weight allocations (or target allocations if different from equal weight) on a monthly basis. We are evaluating quarterly rebalancing on the backtested performance metrics, but as of writing this we have not implemented it.

How did you choose the ETFs for each of the sleeves?

Bitcoin Sleeve: We chose Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) based on the fact that they do not custody the underlying bitcoin with Coinbase. We view that as a potential risk associated with most other bitcoin ETFs.

Equity Sleeve: We chose liquid, low fee, index ETFs or sector ETFs depending on the sub-sleeve. We struck a balance to make sure we had accessibility to the different areas of the market we wanted to without including too many ETFs that it created unnecessary noise or trading in the portfolio.

Commodity & Bond Sleeve: We favored simplicity within these sleeves including a smaller number of ETFs while still giving us broad market coverage with consideration for liquidity and low fees.

What inspired the name ‘Fluvius’?

Fluvius is latin for river, with the root - “to flow”. This is symbolic of the dynamic nature of the strategy and how assets within it flow to where the momentum is in the markets.

Interested in talking with us? Schedule a free call now.

Disclosures:

Hypothetical Backtests: All performance data shown in this presentation are hypothetical backtests, not real‐world trading results.
Dividends & Rebalancing: Dividends are assumed to be reinvested. Rebalances (and related trades) occur monthly, executed at the closing price on the last trading day of each month.
Net of Fees: Performance data is shown net of each underlying fund’s expense ratio and a 1% management fee.
Taxes: Returns are gross of taxes, meaning the impact of taxes on realized gains is not incorporated.
Data Backfill: Certain assets use “like‐kind” performance backfills prior to their inception dates (e.g., FBTC until 01/11/24, then spot Bitcoin data prior to that).
Benchmark (S&P 500): The benchmark reflects returns of Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX). Please note that VFINX is an actual mutual fund with its own expenses and does not necessarily represent direct investment in the S&P 500 Index.
Cash Allocation: All performance data shown includes a 1% cash allocation target.
Strategy Rules: All strategy rules have been applied consistently throughout the backtest period.
Max Drawdowns: Maximum drawdown performance data is calculated on a month to month basis. Intra-month drawdowns are not reflected in the performance data.

This presentation and FAQ blog are provided solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. All performance results shown here are derived from a hypothetical, backtested model of the Fluvius strategy, which includes Bitcoin alongside other assets. These model results do not represent live trading, and they involve inherent limitations, such as reliance on historical data, assumptions about market conditions, and the absence of real‐world execution factors like liquidity constraints, transaction costs, and bid–ask spreads.

Bitcoin is highly volatile, and any potential investment in digital assets should be carefully evaluated in light of their unique risks. Past performance—actual or hypothetical—does not guarantee future results. Investing always involves the risk of loss of principal, and no assurance can be given that any specific investment objectives will be achieved.

Before making any investment decision, consider your financial situation, goals, and risk tolerance, and consult a qualified professional. Although Strong Wealth is a Registered Investment Advisor, registration does not imply a particular level of skill or training. References to specific securities, funds, or strategies are for illustrative purposes only and not recommendations to buy or sell. All opinions are subject to change without notice.
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